Trend or chance

Quantitative methods are fundamental to historical thinking and an indispensable part of the historian’s craft. They help to discover relationships between variables, even when they are not immediately visible. Quantitative methods make intuitive quantitative thinking explicit. A good knowledge of historical statistics also enables (future) historians to test claims, and helps them to make statements about a larger whole based on a selection of sources. 

“Trend en Toeval” (Trend or Chance) offers an accessible but fundamental introduction for all those who have to deal with historical statistics. The authors provide a clear overview of the methods for organizing, displaying and describing historical data. In addition, this textbook also contains an introduction to time series analysis, a first introduction to hypothesis formation, and a treatment of parametric and non-parametric tests. New in this third edition is the attention paid to working with non-structured historical data within the domain of Digital Humanities. With concrete historical examples, the authors illustrate not only the relationship between historical statistics and historical criticism, but also the limitations.